Election analysts say that two of these seats- Araria parliamentary seat and Jehanabad assembly constituency are particularly important as there is the so-called Muslim-Yadav (MY) mathematical equation strong but with the traditional form of JDU and BJP voters coming together Their candidates can get the benefit. Both seats were in the RJD’s account and the need for the by-election was passed by Mohammed Taslimuddin (Leader who won the Lok Sabha elections from Araria in 2014) and the death of Jehanabad legislator Mundra Yadav.
After making distance from the BJP in 2014, JDU had contested the Lok Sabha elections alone and despite Modi wave, Taslimuddin was traveling to win the elections. He got 41 percent votes and the percentage of BJP and JDU’s vote added was 50 percent. In the Araria Lok Sabha constituency, Muslim voters are more than 41 percent of the total electorate, and after coming to JD (U) in their own footsteps, the BJP is hoping to mobilize Hindu votes.
The NDA sources said that in the elections of 2004 and 2009, when JDU was part of the NDA, the BJP candidates won the seat. BJP candidate Pradeep Kumar Singh, who won the election in 2009, is in the fray again and will contest against RJD’s candidate Sarfaraz Alam. Alam is the son of Taslimuddin. In Jehanabad, Yadav and Bhumihari are the largest caste groups, and generally they have been supporting the opposition parties.
The Dalit RJD or JDU can bow down the balance in any one’s favor. In 2010, JD (U) won by winning the NDA, and the victory of its candidate will be a morale boost for Nitish. The BJP had won the Bhabha assembly seat in 2015 between the people’s support in favor of the then RJD-JDU-Congress alliance and she is fully convinced that she will be successful in keeping the seat in the assembly in the Assembly with the Congress.
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